   Presencia-Opinión / Nacionalismos
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| Northern Ireland: Elections without agreement Por Benjamín Kienzle (Canal Mundo, 28/10/2003) |
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At the beginning, 21 October 2003 seemed to become a historic day for Northern Ireland. However, the “choreography”, i.e. the previous planning of the course of political events –a central element of Northern Ireland politics for years in order to increase the desired effects– failed this day, although all had begun perfectly. In the morning, the British government announced that the next elections to the Northern Ireland assembly (cancelled in May) will be held on 26 November, thus meeting a demand from Sinn Féin, the political wing of the Irish Republican Army (IRA). Shortly afterwards, Gerry Adams, president of Sinn Féin, declared in a speech that “we are opposed to any use or threat of force for any political purpose” and added that “Sinn Fein wants to see all guns taken out of Irish society.” Although he did not say literally “the war is over”, as Unionists had demanded, his words convinced moderate Unionists, particularly when the IRA made it clear that it agreed with Gerry Adams and confirmed that it had decommissioned a large amount of weapons. However, in the evening, the head of the Independent International Commission on Decommissioning, the Canadian general John de Chastelain, could neither confirm the place nor the amount of arms turned in, as he was bound by confidentiality agreement with the IRA. Therefore, the leader of the moderate Unionists, David Trimble, became angry and did not fulfil his part of the “choreography” – to applaud the acts of Republicans and to open up the way for a new Northern Ireland Executive with Sinn Féin. In his opinion, a much more transparent act of decommissioning would have been necessary to convince the suspicious Unionist community. The issue of decommissioning has become a symbolic issue within the Unionist community: It is basically a means by anti-Agreement Unionists to demonstrate that the Unionists are in general the losers of the Good Friday Agreement, since Republicans have received too many concessions. The issue has been inflated in such a way that now even a substantial act of decommissioning under the supervision of a truly independent commission is not sufficient, although in many other post-war societies, such as in South Africa or some Central American countries, this issue has not been of major importance. The anti-Agreement Unionists know that it has also symbolic significance for Republicans, as decommissioning, in particular public decommissioning, smacks of surrender. Therefore, Republicans want to avoid any act that may symbolize their defeat. The result is, once more, a total stalemate between the parties of the conflict. Nevertheless, Tony Blair reaffirmed that he would not cancel the November elections. So what can be expected from these elections? Given that all Nationalist and Republican parties support the Good Friday Agreement, the possibility that Sinn Féin will surpass the more moderate Social Democratic and Labour Party as the largest party in the Nationalist/Republican community is only of minor relevance. The most important issue is the result in the Unionist community: Three different possible scenarios exist. First, the Ulster Unionist Party will win the elections due to a new agreement with Sinn Féin before 26 November, which allows both to share power in the Northern Ireland Executive – unfortunately, something very unlikely to happen. Secondly, everything will stay as it is. This would mean that the peace process would continue as usual – with two steps forward and one back. Thirdly, the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) and other anti-Agreement Unionists will win the elections, which could have two effects: either the DUP would renegotiate a new Agreement, which would involve the Unionist opposition in the peace process (after all, David Trimble was seen as a hardliner before the Good Friday Agreement); or the peace process would fail and thus, open up the possibility of a new wave of violence. With the announcement of the elections in November, the future of the peace process is now, however, in the hands of the citizens of Northern Ireland. |
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Benjamín Kienzle, estudiante en prácticas no IGADI. |
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ÚLTIMA REVISIÓN: 30/10/2003 |
